Cardano price broke away from a bearish rising wedge pattern on June 8 with a -5.45% loss and a daily close below the 2018 high of $1.40. It was a quick reversal of fortune for ADA after finally recapturing $1.40 on July 3. As before, without a daily close above $1.40, the altcoin is vulnerable to test the 200-day SMA or the June 22 low.
From the June 22 low until July 7, Cardano price orchestrated a rebound that culminated in a bearish rising wedge pattern that successfully triggered on July 8, taking ADA below $1.40 after five consecutive days of holding the crucial level. The inability to assert relative strength in a demanding market environment reflects a diminished interest in the ‘green story’ of Cardano.
The measured move price is the low of the wedge formation at $0.99, representing a 24% decline from the current price. A daily close below the July 1 low of $1.21 would be the additional confirmation needed for a bearish outcome for Cardano price.
The only credible ADA support below $1.21 is the 200-day SMA at $1.10 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020-2021 advance at $1.00. If the June 22 low fails to hold, other significant support points include the May 19 low of $0.92 and the April 23 low of $0.89. There are no support levels of interest on the weekly chart until the 50-week SMA at $0.72.
A bullish ADA outlook only begins with a daily close above $1.40, and for the more cautious market operators, a weekly close above $1.40. If successful, Cardano price will strike serious resistance at the 50-day SMA at $1.47, the February 27 high of $1.54 and the April 14 high of $1.57.
As a Proof of Stake (PoS) blockchain platform, Cardano energy needs are notably lower than the Proof of Work (PoW) Bitcoin platform, thus positioning ADA as a green token and an environmental leader in the blockchain space. However, Cardano price has not responded positively to the spotlight, fluctuating in line with the broader market. Until a semblance of relative strength can be sustained, the digital asset is no better investment option than most cryptocurrencies.